12.08.2005

The Monster “Conroe” Cometh – Should AMD be worried?


I have received numerous questions about Intel’s future roadmap, and whether or not AMD should be worried. I have been in this business since 1991 and I cannot remember the last time a big company leaked out a roadmap, revealing almost every detail, one year in advance of releasing products.

It makes me wonder exactly why Intel allowed this to happen. Perhaps they needed to implement immediate damage control as they continue to lose market and mind share in key areas. Releasing a detailed roadmap like this could be an effective tool in casting doubt in people’s minds whether or not we should buy AMD now or wait until later to buy Intel.

My father always taught me that it is typical of the underdog to reveal all their cards -- that's a pretty profound but true statement.

Should AMD be scared? Judging by the details coming from Intel I would venture to guess that Goliath is trying to throw a smoke screen in front of David. However, with details on Intel’s future Conroe featuring 4 megs of shared cache, dual core technology, 65 nanometer process, and proposed 3GHz+ debut (more likely 2.5GHz) it would seem to me that anyone would run scared – although this would be more “scary” if AMD sitting idle doing nothing.

I do believe that Intel will be back on the train tracks sometime next year, but that should be obvious considering the fact that they have all but derailed this year. I’m pretty sure there will be a few surprises from the green camp once again.

The bottom line is Conroe may look scary on paper, but so does ATi Crossfire. Until we start to see some real product launches we’ll never know for sure. Although Intel has always been pretty good about releasing products on time, this roadmap is pretty bullish so only time will tell. AMD is remaining pretty quiet about their future plans, but REV F looks to be a tight platform. I don't think people realize how insane REV F is going to be, but I'm pretty sure it will please the most die hard enthusiasts.

In the meantime I don’t think there’s any question as to who is winning the battle these days. There is no doubt in my mind that AMD will continue to gain ground (read: marketshare) for many months to come.

I’m a big fan of low voltage chips from both AMD and Intel.

I can’t wait to start designing new systems based on some of the upcoming technologies. Competition is heating up, and 2006 should be the most interesting year ever.
One last thing, speaking of "REV F" (I can just see the AMD communications and PR team teeth clench everytime I refer to it as "REV F") - sorry guys. I plan to write an article about it pretty soon so look forward to it.


6 comments:

Lt.Col.Claymore / Albert said...

Mhh i think AMD got's some Wonder Full thing's waiting to unleash

3 new Socket's

Going for DDR3 Support (so might be DDR2 too)

New Technology to Improve Performance Per Watt

mhh im not worried atleast!

Sun also worked with AMD to make a New SE Edition of a Opteron!

Dual Core for the masses :-)

Parker said...

To bad the AMD vs Intel dual core battle never happened. Well I guess Intel sitll has a couple weeks to accept but it seems unlikely. I think that there speaks wonders for AMD and the fact that no matter what Intel comes out with you can not go wrong with the Toledo core or the FX. Awesome CPUs with awesome power. If anything releasing this info is only going to push AMD to another limit. Intel has given them a years heads up and just think of what AMD can do with that kind of time.

Anonymous said...

Still waiting for Intel's in the cords...

http://www.amdboard.com/amd_082305.html

11/30/05 AMD to Host Dual-Core Duel Event in Singapore - Hardware Zone
"AMD announced that it will host a live dual-core duel event in Singapore on December 6. This latest challenge to Intel was issued yesterday in an advertisement in Digital Life of The Straits Times. This challenge is a follow-on to the original challenge issued to Intel on August 23. "



Where was Conroe? Still training with sparing partners?

Anonymous said...

'Although Intel has always been pretty good about releasing products on time'

Except when they tear up the roadmap and flush it down the toilet...

Anonymous said...

"Although Intel has always been pretty good about releasing products on time"

Would that be the Paper Launch's or the Selective Launch of Dell products with that 1000 to 10000 max quantity product for the 1 to 3 months of availability.

So when does AMD drop the Socket S with a dual core 65nm Turion's on Intel's 800lb gorilla?

Jonathan McKay said...

For some reason this article is at the top of my RSS feed today. (3-25-06) How does that work?