We are in a bit of a quiet period at the moment as we are planning to announce some new products shortly. That being said I’ve been put to work (no time to shave even!) and I have had no time to provide any significant updates – please bear with us until early October.
In the meantime I wrote up a (fantastic?) article on Intel Kentsfield for CPU Magazine. I think it's a must read for all enthusiasts looking to upgrade to something new this fall. I still get a good laugh from many of the die-hard Intel Fanboys who continue to accuse me of being biased, they obviously don't get it. Regardless of what they (or anyone else) says, I will continue to call it like I see it.
For now, be on the lookout for a pink bunny at the Intel Developer Forum. You probably know him as Charlie from the Inquirer – as many of you know he lost the bet and he’s going to pay dearly for it.
If you see him there please give him a hug from all of us at Voodoo, he’s a great sport and we want this event to be somewhat memorable.
If you haven’t been following “the bet” here is the original thread linked to the series.
22 blogger comments:
Would love to read your article on Kentsfield but don't want to subscribe. Any chance you'll post that article on your blog, like you've done in the past?
Now I know 4x4 will be release in october!!
What do u think about the upcoming quad core by amd brisbane i think is the codename with two k8s similar to kentfield with core 2s, would like to know your opinion about that and how it will compete against the kentfield raul....
In your opinion raul which would be the stronger GENERAL performer kentfield or 4x4 across all apps multithreaded and otherwise?
Hawr hawr mayte.
We all be biased. Just the nature of the animal.
Accusing you of being an AMD fanboy? Gee, why would anyone do that? I mean after all in the last 9 months, you write a completely FUDish piece about 4x4 (which is nothing more then a reprinted AMD press release), you chastise real Wall Street analysts about dropping AMD stock and then say investors should short Intel stock, you screen Intel-favorable posts to your blog yet let fake Ph.D Sharikou spew his bile about how Intel will be bankrupt in a few quarters, spend 3 different blog posts on how the AMD/ATI merger will be the greatest thing in the world and will defeat the mighty "Goliath Intel", and you claim Intel should "thank AMD" for forcing them to launch good products.
Anybody care to read the last 18 months of posts by Rahul? If I didn't know better, I'd think I was reading an internal blog of an AMD exec. Do the math; how many favorable AMD posts vs. favorable Intel posts? How many complete (and incorrect) speculation about how AMD is so awesome that are not based on fact, reality, and actual benchmarks?
There's only one fanboy on this blog and his name is Rahul.
The Rahul Patented Blog Post Formula(r) lives on: start each post off by saying how hard you work but that you can't talk about the top secret products coming up!
Anonymous said...
Accusing you of being an AMD fanboy? Gee, why would anyone do that?
Hmm, I guess you "anonymous".
I mean after all in the last 9 months, you write a completely FUDish piece about 4x4 (which is nothing more then a reprinted AMD press release), you chastise real Wall Street analysts about dropping AMD stock and then say investors should short Intel stock,
Hmm, I don't know about you - but those who bought AMD at $18 and sold at $40+ did well wouldn't you think? Also those who shorted Intel at $30 and bought back at $17+ did pretty well. I'd say if people are reading what I'm saying and making investment decisions based on what I say - well that's up to them.
Regarding the "FUDish" piece on 4x4, I believe in order for 4x4 to be successful AMD has to take three things into account. 1) Power, 2) Price, 3) Category. If they are indeed paving the way for a potentially new category then it will have the effect they are looking for. If that's a fanboy statement, then I guess I'm a fanboy.
You screen Intel-favorable posts to your blog yet let fake Ph.D Sharikou spew his bile about how Intel will be bankrupt in a few quarters,
No, I screen posts that are posted from competitors pretending to be anonymous and posts with racial slurs. I have also screened MANY posts from "sharikou".
Regarding Sharikou's post on Intel going "bankrupt", if I had not allowed that comment I probably would have given him more credit than some of his comments deserve.
You would have to be stupid to believe such a post - I assume that most of the readers here aren't stupid. ;)
Spend 3 different blog posts on how the AMD/ATI merger will be the greatest thing in the world and will defeat the mighty "Goliath Intel", and you claim Intel should "thank AMD" for forcing them to launch good products.
Okay, you think I'm wrong on this point? Remove your blinders for a minute and look what's happening in the industry. Forget the merger - look what's happening at AMD. They can barely keep up with their existing demand even with Conroe/Woodcrest/Merom.
..and yes I believe if not for the competition that AMD posed we would not see such an excellent offering from Intel right now. Complacency is an innovation killer.
If I didn't know better, I'd think I was reading an internal blog of an AMD exec.
..and if I didn't know better I'd say you have an axe to grind. Perhaps your post would hold more weight if you actually posted with your real name.
Do the math; how many favorable AMD posts vs. favorable Intel posts? How many complete (and incorrect) speculation about how AMD is so awesome that are not based on fact, reality, and actual benchmarks?
I'd say you should go back and read them again. I think everything I've written has been quite accurate.
The Rahul Patented Blog Post Formula(r) lives on: start each post off by saying how hard you work but that you can't talk about the top secret products coming up!
:) I guess the proof will come to light in the upcoming month. At least I know I have the satisfaction of knowing that "anonymous" had to eat his words, again.
You might also want to read the upcoming Kentsfield article in CPU magazine as well.
Rahul - you dinged Michael Dell in an earlier article for not understanding where Apple was going.
Ccome down and read my analysis of "The Apple effect" and let me know what you think. Did I miss something...?
http://sharikou180.blogspot.com/2006/09/apple-effect.html
http://sharikou180.blogspot.com
(A more balanced point of view.)
Hi Rahul,
Most of the people who read your blogs do so because they get good insights from them and your track record with respect to predictions is pretty darn good. Why waste your time responding to hate mail?
Now if only you could tell me why its taking Intel so long to ramp up production on the core 2s...
Regards,
Alan
I think the reason Intel is having a tough time ramping up Core 2's is because it's new technology with a new process. They also had most of their production on the old stuff with (what seems to be) anticipation that the Core 2 would carry the rest of their product line via the halo effect. Also Dell cut their market share significantly by introducing AMD based desktops and servers. Notebooks are still coming I'm almost certain.
I imagine Intel will be in a much better position to produce better yields in Q1.
I don't think Intel is having a tough time with ramping. Core2Duo currently comprises slightly more than 25% of all Intel processor shipments. This makes it the fastest ramping product in Intel's history.
Just because Core2Duo demand outstrips supply does not mean that something is broken at Intel. It is very difficult and expensive to bring up new processors in a fab - it is not something that occurs overnight. From a utilization standpoint, it makes complete sense to use the older fabs to continue to make the older product while also marching forward with fab conversion.
Granted, it may make less sense to those of you lined up in opposition to the Pentium - but it is important to bear in mind that the Pentium brand still carries a lot of weight in emerging markets (so these products ARE selling).
I don't think Intel gets its due when it comes to getting credit for it's manufacturing capacity and expertise.
Intel has bet it's first 7 weeks on their channel - OEM availability WORLDWIDE is still coming. The new chipset availability is screwed up in some parts of the world and hence their desktop ramp is not as fast in DIY. However, there seems to be faster than normal visibility of Merom SKUs. Perhaps some of this has to do with pricing (merom simply replaces Napa at same price points).
Colin and 180 provide the most accurate information on this blog for ages...
Conroe was around well before it actually launched in the form of Yonah, so yields are exactly where Intel planned. As Colin points out, not everyone in the world wants Conroe; i.e. the "rest of the 80% of the world" who isn't buying the latest technology and where the average yearly income is less then $1500. But Rahul only understands the 1% of the market that buys $5000 PCs and has no ideas of the emerging markets who are still using Pentium brands on 915 chipsets.
Interesting that when Intel demand outstrips supply, Rahul claims it's a "yield problem". But when AMD has shortages, it's because their products are awesome and that "AMD just can't make enough". When AMD starts shipping CPUs in volume to Dell and the rest of the channel can't buy anything, don't count on reading about AMD yield problems on this blog.
Intel and AMD are both about the same age (30ish years) but AMD has 1/10th the number of fabs, 1/10th the capacity, 1/10th the market cap, 1/10th the total market share of all CPUs, and Intel made more profit last year then AMD has combined in it's entire 30 years (thanks to year after year of massive losses by AMD). Who do you think will be around in another 30 years? Think Hector has a chance of ever taking his company to have a top 5 most valuable brand in the world, or be listed on Fortune 500's "Best Company To Work For", and "Most Respected Company"?
Colin,
3Q production of C2D is 10%, not 25%. And Intel's 4Q projection is 20%. That makes this a fairly typical ramp rather than the fastest in history...
I think Rahul is right and its a new process issue, but I think its due to a need for new equipment which is in limited supply rather than a yield problem. If it were a yield issue, it probably wouldn't be so consistantly easy to overclock these chips.
Intel is widely acknowledged as the leader in manufacturing capacity and expertise. Their problem wasn't manufacturing but poor design prior to the Pentium M. Now that they have a top notch design again, they should be a very strong competitor after they write off the mountain of inventory of older chips that they will never be able to sell.
Regards,
Alan
I think Kentsfield will do very well against 4x4 this upcoming Q4:)
Kentsfield will rule single threaded stuff.
And if AMD's "memory bandwith" gives it a lead, I don't think it'll be worth twice the power requirements of Kentsfield (125W+125W vs 120W).
http://tweakers.net/nieuws/44504/AMD-4x4-platform-gebaseerd-op-Socket-1207.html
Alan, I have heard Otellini himself say "a little more than 25%". So we disagree on this.
Hi Rahul,
I thought the other day about that bunny suit, and reconned maybe everyone forgot about it. :)
Besides you are late with your new line :)
I read that you was supposed to release new product line on sempember.
Though there is still some time left. :)
And don't pay attention to those who try to bash you, I can't find any other blog/site with so much interesting and accurate info.
And sometimes even fortune telling :)
keep blogging that way.
P.S. It's pitty, that your new product line was late for last month's CustomPCs 'Dream PC 2006' article.
Though Vadim's pc was worth the 'Dream PC 2006' name this year.
:)
Colin,
At one point, Intel was indicating that C2D would be 25% of production by the end of the year, but they have toned that down in more recent financial releases. I don't dissagree with your suggestion that Intel will regain a lot of ground from AMD with C2D but I don't think Intel's stock will start looking good until the end of the year.
Right now I am short AMD because I think it will turn out that the price war is hurting them more than people realize and also because of the merger. Rahul and others (including Charlie D. :-) have made the case for why buying ATI was good, maybe even necessary, but successful mergers like this are definitely in the minority. In addition, it isn't clear that AMD, which is also in the very expensive process of building and upgrading fabs, will be able to afford ATI. With an additional 2.5 billion in debt on their ballance sheet, any earnings misses will cause a significant selloff of the stock.
Many people may also point to new sales to Dell, but when you look at the prices of these machines its pretty clear that AMD won't be making a lot of money on the processors.
Regards,
Alan
Regarding Sharikou's post on Intel going "bankrupt", if I had not allowed that comment I probably would have given him more credit than some of his comments deserve.
Hey, Rahul, you predicted DELL will go AMD in 2006. I did it more accurately -- I pinpointed the time. Since last year, I repeated my iteration for DELL's Enron scenario. I warned Michael Dell on that. Look at DELL today, it faces delisting threats from NASAQ. I pointed out that DELL's only chance of avoiding going Enron is adopting AMD across the board and do it fast...
I reiterate my BK projection for Intel. It's simple math, take Intel's cash and divide it by the projected losses Intel will suffer. Intel will BK by 2Q08 -- it's inevitable. The only way for Intel to avoid BK is to layoff 80% of its workers, ramp down and conserve cash. But to layoff 80% of its workers require $1.6 billion of cash. Intel can't afford that right now. It has already auctioned off most of its liquidatable stuff.
Conroe fatally wounded Intel and Kentsfield will kill Intel. Conroe was the last straw that pushed DELL to AMD on desktop. You have to remember that 70% of Intel production in 1Q07 will still be Netburst, and AMD is quickly moving towards K8L.
http://sharikou.blogspot.com
Who do you think will be around in another 30 years? Think Hector has a chance of ever taking his company to have a top 5 most valuable brand in the world, or be listed on Fortune 500's "Best Company To Work For", and "Most Respected Company"?
They have been in the Fortune500 for awhile now.
Fortune America's Most Admired Companies 2006:
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/mostadmired/snapshots/25.html
So I guess Hector and AMD might have a chance. ;-)
Enyoy YOUR idf with Charlie "bugs" bunny !
He will do too, i am sure.
Please update us with your comments.
regards juergen
Rahul,
So what do you think of:
70% more with Core 2 Quad,
300% by 2010,
300mm TFLOP,
Silicon Photonics.
I don't know about you but based on this I am convinced that AMD is not the only corporation busy innovating.
Although I'll bet some people commenting here will assert that we should be thanking AMD for these innovations.
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