Prepare for the Tornado!

It's been a few months since we were acquired by Hewlett Packard and I'm sure some of you are wondering what's happening on the inside. Many of us have been working 18 hours a day to get our portfolio loaded, and our teams have been working so well together it's like we were separated at birth.

I am absolutely blown away with the technology that we have available to us within HP. We could literally wallpaper the place with all of the quality registered patents in our portfolio.

The talented people within HP Labs have sighted some key research that would impress even the most hardcore gamer. There is tons of passion and energy there and I'm impressed with how the various groups work together - they make their research exciting!

Honestly, I didn't expect this when the acquisition was announced. If you are a techie like me then working at HP is a freaking dream. I have been overwhelmed, and the ideas keep flowing – and the funnel is overflowing.

So, on April 4th we will be demonstrating just some of the advanced research for computer gaming as we host an exclusive, by invitation only, gaming summit in the bay area. Shane Robison, Executive Vice President & Chief Strategy & Technology Officer, is hosting the event and I am doing the keynote.

We will also have representatives from HP labs who will give the attendees a chance to test drive some of the technology we’re showcasing. I will be conducting a panel with a few key members from our industry -- it should be very interesting.

So, get ready for the tornado – and if you’re one of our competitors, take cover soon, because the pain train is about to board.

Games for Windows – the Gauntlet has been dropped

Sorry about the lack of updates, I've been working 16 hours a day, and on top of that I'm finishing my diving certification. This is my latest installment for CPU Magazine. It's an article featuring more information on Microsoft Games for Windows.

This may come as a shock to some but Windows happens to be the most popular gaming platform on the planet. Technically this includes all types of games, including the largest segment of the market, casual games – but semantics aside, PC gaming is absolutely huge and growing.

One of the reasons people don’t think about games when they look at a computer is because there has never been a unified go to market approach on the content side, similar to consoles. Walking into a retail store you’ll see dedicated spaces for console games in an orderly, organized, branded fashion, whereas PC games are placed in a general PC software section with no common branding. To make things worse, most people don’t know if a particular PC game is compatible with their system.

It’s also more attractive for developers to develop on the consoles – even with the exorbitant cost of entry. Think about it, Nintendo has sold more WII’s then most PC game titles will sell in total, and game developers are taking notice.

From a developer standpoint the beauty of Windows is the open platform approach to development, level of realism offered, low cost for entry, and the seemingly limitless performance ceilings. Of course online games like World of Warcraft have created an enviable recurring revenue business model which is attracting more developers our way. Back in the day the ugly side of Windows gaming was piracy, but things have changed and piracy has declined significantly. Now the endless hardware combinations, insane compatibility tests, and user experience seems to be contributing to the ugly side.

There are many more pros & cons of developing games for personal computers, but luckily the pros far outweigh the cons and more developers are jumping on board.

So, what’s Games for Windows (GfW)? According to Microsoft it’s a 4 tier promise of quality, compatibility, safety, and ease of use.

Quality: GfW titles undergo extensive testing by both Microsoft and the publisher.

Compatibility: GfW titles work on XP and Vista, both 32 bit and 64 bit editions. One of the biggest problems with PC games is the extensive configuration required to make a joystick work, and GfW promises to eliminate this complexity by ensuring that titles are compatible with the Microsoft Xbox 360 controller out of the box. GfW titles also support native widescreen resolutions.

Safety: GfW titles will support new parental controls and unique family settings.

Ease of use: GfW titles are easy to install find and remove, especially in Windows Vista. In fact, rumour has it that the next generation Halo is drop & play from the disc, very much like the Xbox 360.

On paper it sounds great, but I’ve spoken with many developers who are still on the fence. To be honest I’ve met with the GfW team, and I truly believe they are sincere in their efforts, but there are two things that really bug me.

Microsoft is working to create a community experience similar to Xbox Live called Windows Live, where people can chat, set up games, and play. In the future, PC and Xbox 360 gamers will even be able to play with and against each other, a cross-platform experience that sounds really cool to me. My concern is that Microsoft will charge a membership fee to those who want to be part of this. So long the fee is $50 per year or less, it’ll probably be a good deal for users, but game developers that support the GFW cause may have to give up their recurring revenues to Microsoft.

Another thing that bugs me is the branding. If I were a game developer I’m not sure that I would want a huge-ass Microsoft banner on all my games, because it’s not like Microsoft published it. I DO like the concept, and agree that consistent branding is important, but Microsoft needs to lighten up on the requirements to attract some of the big guys.

The thought of going home and plopping NHL 2K7 into my PC with an easy to use controller experience is awesome. I can’t imagine a console being able to keep up with the level of detail that a high end PC offers - there’s nothing like playing games on a PC.

I would encourage all developers to take a good long look at GfW and let them know your concerns. I applaud Microsoft for taking the first step to standardization, now it’s your turn to make it work.

If you haven't got your subscription for CPU, now is the time!

AMD’s Asymmetrical War

Here is an extended version of the latest article I wrote for Custom PC Magazine. It’s an eye opening story mostly directed at people inside and close to AMD. Let me start by saying that I have always been a fan of AMD because of their committment to innovation. This article may come off as brutal, but I hope they take it for what it's worth. I am concerned because I love the company, and I have many friends there -- and I don't claim to have all the answers. Hopefully this will be a wake up call to those who are abrasive to change.

Since AMD landed the big deal with Dell their performance has left much to be desired. Their stock is trading below the 52 week low, their numbers are below expectations, they just swallowed ATI along with some mega debt, and they misfired on their new video card launch. The price war between Intel and AMD is eating away at their margins, and I am guessing that they lost some market share in the high end. In fact, things are so bad that AMD’s market cap is near 7 billion (I think?). What a mess.

No doubt AMD has seen better days, much better days. I feel for them because I really believe in their story. I believe that the concept of Fusion has potential – though at this point it is merely a concept. Wouldn’t it be nice to be able to jam the power of three chips into one on a mobile product? The potential is huge; the vision is compelling, now it’s just a matter of the execution.

If AMD didn’t have enough problems ATI had many of their own, and trying to mash to two together is no easy task. As Michael Brown from FEMA once put it during the aftermath of Katrina, “…just ask Karla from IBM how hard it was to merge IBM with Compaq.” -- Yeah he actually said that…just a little comic relief for you.

In any case the optimists at AMD will tell you that they are not running the one hundred meter dash - it’s the Tour de France, and they have only reached the first mountain stage - they still have a heck of a long way to go. Others may tell you that they are running out of ideas.

If I didn’t know the management team at AMD I would probably lose all hope for them. Though to some it seems like a company falling apart – I really believe there is light at the end of the tunnel. Perhaps not by choice, the company is retrenching and getting ready for the next big battle. The reality is AMD is no stranger to struggles – they have always been the underdog and even when they were on top they remained the underdog. That’s a pretty profound but true statement.

If you ask me, AMD is preparing to unleash a wrath unlike one they have launched in the past. It won’t happen anytime soon (definitely not), but I can almost envision the urgency in their internal meetings. These guys are pissed off; trust me when I say guys like Henri Richard and Hector Ruiz are NOT satisfied with the stock price at under $14! They certainly don’t need money, but their pride is at stake. Their word and commitment means more to them than all the money in the world (something like that), and they aren’t alone. ...but blah blah blah, this doesn't change anything, the challenge to fix the company is still massive.

AMD is staffed with like minded people stemming from the top – these guys are on a mission, and they just reached phase one. The trouble is its tough being the underdog all the time, and it can be somewhat demoralizing when you’re the underdog and struggling.

This is where loyalty matters – and people with strong stomachs will reap the rewards. Others will jump ship and look for the next easy ride. My point is AMD has faced more adversity than many companies could ever dream of. Sure there are people in the company who are somewhat discouraged, but now is not the time for them to run away.

Being the underdog is in AMD’s culture, it’s their lifeline, and it’s what will make them successful again. Next time they make it on top they must retain an underdog “non-arrogant” culture internally. This is the key to their ongoing success.

It is challenges like this that separates successful people from the rest of the pack. Perhaps I am directing this article to those people who are floating resumes around -- the pressure is on -- now is the time for you to give back to your company and reap the rewards from a turnaround.

The bottom line is lazy people don’t get rich. It’s time to take broad look at the landscape around you and think strategically. It’s time to change the way your people think about sales and innovation. It's time that you focussed on power and thermals and not marketing spin. It’s time that you think way outside the box and get to the core of what “Customer Centric” innovation means. It’s time that you realized competing head to head against a giant isn’t the way to win the battle. ...and it's time to leverage the core competencies within your talented engineering teams and start executing. I would venture to say that you are involved in an asymmetrical war - perhaps getting your people to understand what that means will help.

There are many companies out there that depend on the competition between AMD and Intel to be somewhat healthy. So I guess the point of this article is to point out that AMD will be back - whether someone will acquire them from underneath them is yet to be seen.

On a related note, the sheer velocity that tech stocks go through is absolutely insane. You rarely see such volatility in other industries, but the tech industry is a tough one to pick. That said; if you’re a savvy investor you’re probably raking in big cash in good times and in bad – good for you :)

Just keep in mind that a world without AMD would be a boring place. Without tough competition there would be no innovation. AMD woke Intel up.

Don’t forget to get your subscription to Custom PC Magazine!

Microsoft's Next Chapter

This is the full unedited version of the article I wrote for the Inquirer.

I was planning on writing this article after my trip to Microsoft last week, and thank goodness I did. I must tell you, I was expecting something completely different prior to my visit. Microsoft’s gaming group is full of open and honest people who are quite aware of the competitive landscape – and funny enough they seem understated and modest about it. As a big Microsoft fan it was a refreshing trip. Perhaps they’ll be open to some suggestions.

Is Microsoft Vista driving demand for new PCs? Personally I don’t believe that Vista is creating incremental demand for new computers but I think things are about to change.

Microsoft is investing a significant amount of resources into the entertainment side of Vista, and Games for Windows looks promising. Games for Windows is more than just a marketing campaign, it should add significant benefit to the PC and console gaming experience. Microsoft is pushing for an easier installation experience, XBOX controller compatibility, and a full inter-compatible console/pc communication system. These are just some of the awesome features that Microsoft is driving for, there are many more that I probably can’t discuss until they show up. Rest assured, Games for Windows is not hype and I think developers should take a serious look at it.

Beyond Games for Windows there is still DirectX 10, and I believe DX10 will drive Vista demand significantly. There are new game titles, including Company of Heroes which will eventually support DX10 (not sure when). That said Company of Heroes looks amazing as it is, so it’s hard to imagine what DX10 will do for it. According to the developers there should be some significant tangible benefits.

So I’m really excited for Vista and what it will bring to the gaming experience, although I wish is was ready at launch. As you might guess in an open ecosystem it’s nearly impossible to guarantee that all partners will be ready to execute on a specific date. In fact many of Microsoft’s partners were caught with their pants down when Vista launched and they’re STILL trying to get things working right.

Regardless I am a firm believer that Microsoft’s future success in the OS space will be driven on the back of DirectX and their gaming team. It’s somewhat reminiscent of Intel’s riding success on the backs of their Israeli engineering team. In fact, I said it before and I’ll say it again, Vista’s demand will increase based on tangible benefits of DirectX and Gaming. Sure Microsoft Office is amazing, but I don’t believe Office drives significant incremental demand for Vista because you can buy Office for other platforms as well.

This is where the story gets interesting. At the risk of skipping a few milestones I’m about to cram some history into a few paragraphs.

Microsoft's Next Chapter

Back in the day when IBM OS/2, Amiga, and Apple roamed the land, the competitive landscape was somewhat interesting. Businesses dedicated to Apple, Amiga, and IBM compatible PCs were flourishing. Novell was growing on the enterprise networking side, UNIX was rampant, and Microsoft had recently launched Windows.

Due to their execution, heritage of innovation, a bit of luck, and their commitment to meeting the demands of the mass market it didn’t take long for things to shift in Microsoft’s favour. Ultimately it was Microsoft against the world, and the landscape ended up being somewhat desolate.

Witnessing the death of such movements was a real disappointment for many. Perhaps the disappointment was related to the battle and not so much the outcome.

Either way it was like watching Godzilla run through the city destroying everything with nary a remnant in sight. Yes, the action was short lived, Apple was left for dead, and there was nothing left except hope.

It was soon declared that Microsoft was the king of the PC world and no one would ever attempt to compete with them. I mean, why bother right? Windows did everything we needed it to do for a reasonable price and everyone used it. Over the years there were claims that Microsoft’s monopolist tactics were aggressive and somewhat uncompetitive. I never really paid attention, all I knew was Microsoft helped build many successful businesses. They also managed to kill a few companies along the way. Like them or hate them when you analyze the core of their business, Microsoft was successful because people felt comfortable with them. That said, you know it’s time for a reality check when your customers start to feel comfortable with someone else’s product.

I have always been a fan of Microsoft. That said, I’m not a fan of complacency, and if left unchecked for years (and years and years) it may lead to adverse consequences. The one thing Microsoft has been lacking is big-time competition in the core operating system space.

How times have changed; Apple, once left for dead, is now a mainstream contender. Companies like Google and Yahoo! come out of nowhere, and Wall Street witnesses as their valuations reach heights that only a few could imagine.

In the meantime some say that Microsoft has become a victim of their own success. Let’s face it, lazy people don’t get rich but rich people sure as heck get lazy. I’m sure there are people at Microsoft that are somewhat unaware of what’s happening around them.

I think we’ve reached a point in time when people would welcome and support a new operating system. The landscape has changed immensely and there are warriors with huge war chests gaining power. These new warriors are out in the open, waiting for the day that they can come out and announce their big plans.

I don’t think it’s as simple as someone launching another half-baked distribution of Linux. Don’t get me wrong, I think Linux is awesome, and while I like open source I think there are limitations when it comes to consistency, support, and ease of use.

I think there are at least three major threats to Microsoft’s dominance in the operating system space.

Imagine if someone setup an industry recognized open source consortium whose sole job is to certifying any modifications and new applications to the OS regardless of distribution. At least we would get some consistency, and people could profit from their work.

Another possible scenario would be for a giant company, like Google, to step out and launch a clean easy to use version of Linux (or something of the like) that does absolutely everything a PC or Mac does but better.

The third and certainly most obvious threat is if Apple decided to license their OS. An interesting prospect, and perhaps not as unlikely as some people would like to think.

Yes, there are many possible threats - I could sit here and list them off, but I don't want to give my competitors any ideas, and I'm sure that Microsoft hires people to focus on strategy all day long.

No matter what happens, Microsoft has gaming in their favour. They should be placing as many resources as possible into their gaming divisions to help carry the company forward through challenging times. Gaming and highly immersive entertainment will also help drive demand for Vista Ultimate.

They also have Microsoft Office, which is successful on both Apple and Windows based machines. There is no better Office productivity suite than Microsoft Office, but it helps if Microsoft influences the rest of the ecosystem as well.

I’m sure Microsoft eagerly searches for young hungry blood, but it’s hard to find good people when companies like Google and Yahoo! exist. Generation X&Y’ers have unique aspirations in life.

Yes, Microsoft has some threats, but I have full confidence that at least some of them are aware of their surroundings. Understanding your threats is half the battle to winning a war. I can only hope that the people I met are representative of those at the top of the totem pole.

I’m also guessing that the industry landscape will be completely different five years from now – let’s see what happens. Feel free to flame me now.