The Netbook concept began with a vision of filling a gaping hole for a low cost no frills computing solution for emerging markets. Somewhat unexpectedly, the sales in mainstream markets is where the bulk of the business has taken place. Netbooks are very inexpensive, durable, and extremely capable for general use.
The Netbook, as capable as it is, was never designed to be a primary personal computer. Rather a Netbook was originally designed to be a supplementary computer to those who already have a notebook or desktop computer. Where the vision was cloudy was in software - so instead of developing custom software that would make a Netbook a good supplement, everyone decided to install full versions of Windows. Thus the confusion.
It started with VIA who was among the first to launch a Netbook platform. Though it seemed like they designed it for someone with unusually tiny fingers few could argue the cool factor of the platform. A few companies jumped in and started to market them - and once one company got in, another followed, and so on. The sudden success of Netbooks caught everyone, including Intel, off guard.
Intel kicked and screamed, but finally they decided to launch their Atom processor and that's when all hell broke loose. Even Qualcom - and now AMD and Freescale are getting in on the Netbook platform action. Now almost every no name brand has a Netbook - and although the name brands like HP make some of the best Netbooks available the category seems to be getting commoditized.
Netbooks are everywhere. It's amazing that companies are all launching these tiny platforms and just as quickly they're busy slashing prices in order to stay ahead of the next guy. In some ways Netbooks helped generate sales in a tough economy - but as the core of the Netbook platform morphs into other devices we may find ourselves in an increasingly challenging situation.
So here's the problem as I see it. Netbooks are great, as Netbooks. However when I see people taking the technology that would typically belong inside a Netbook and installing it into other larger sized notebooks, a new alarming trend occurs. $1000 is the new $2000, $400 is the new $1000, 10" screens become 14" screens, and materials change in order to compensate for the lower prices.
As a consumer you might think "So, what's the problem?" - and the answer is complicated. Consumer expectations are very high - and when a product they perceive is a fully functional notebook doesn't perform as well as most fully functioning notebooks they could set themselves up for disappointment. It's a vicious cycle.
Assuming you get caught in this cycle, how do you differentiate the higher performance machines from the Netbook equipped systems?
Imagine if you lived in a village and you had a milk producing cow. Cows, no matter how hard life gets, provide milk and they ask for very little in return. Once you start eating the cow, you can gorge on beef for a few days but then the party is over. Good luck milking a dead cow.
On that note, people are speculating whether or not Apple will launch a Netbook. Well I can almost guarantee you that because of the above they won't launch one as we know it. Likely if Apple does produce something like a Netbook it will have to supplement their existing products in a meaningful way.
Perhaps even Intel would secretly like to block certain companies from buying their Atom processors, but who knows. What I do know is Intel is aware that other companies, like AMD, Via, Freescale, and Qualcom are standing by to fill in the void. That said, the Atom processor is good in doses. It's good in Netbook platforms, and it seems to be good in tiny form factors, like Nvidia's ION platform. Intel shouldn't block such platforms (I hope this explains the above picture) - rather they should embrace them and add more features to their higher end platforms.
Notice: if the Netbook platform had been designed with specific software that made it into an awesome supplement rather than a ho-hum replacement, perhaps I wouldn't be writing this. Microsoft are you reading this?
Intel is ultimately the company who may end up eating their own cow if they don't deliver compelling options on the high end. Be it graphics, seamless wireless, flash memory, software, whatever.
The day I see companies starting to install the Intel Atom and other similar platforms in full sized notebooks is the day I get a little concerned. Right now it's all fun because we're exploring new territory on a daily basis - but it's definitely uncharted - and the current economic situation makes things even more interesting.
The economy is like nothing we have ever seen before, and some of us are speculating around 18 months of rough waters --- and only companies who are well prepared will come out stronger than ever before.
Anyways.... could this be the beginning of the disposable PC? Hmmm...
**UPDATE** 5:00 pm: Now this is interesting :)
